Summary 2023 and Mool's Outlook for 2024

Mool Market Summary 2023

In the dynamic landscape of 2023, the Indian financial markets emerged as a beacon of resilience and strength amid a backdrop of global uncertainties.

Record Market Performance

The Nifty 50 reached an all-time high in December '23, closing the year with a remarkable 20% gain inCY23. This marked the eighth consecutive year of positive returns, highlighting the sustained buoyancy of the Indian financial landscape. While the first 10months of 2023 exhibited a flat performance, the uptick in stocks was seen in the last 2 months with the Nifty gaining 6% & 7.2% in November and December respectively.

Corporate Earnings and Sectoral Gainers

Corporate earnings painted a positive picture, with the Nifty-50 reporting a stellar 30% growth in the first half of FY24. Sectors such as Automobiles, Real Estate, Capital Goods, and Utilities witnessed a robust comeback. The Nifty Realty Index grew 79.6%and Nifty Auto gained 47% in CY23. In CY23, DII flows remained robust at USD22.3 billion and FIIs staged inflows of USD 21.2 billion in CY23.

Macroeconomic Strength

India's macroeconomic indicators stood strong, surpassing expectations with real GDP registering an impressive 7.7% YoY growth in the first half of FY24. Stability in inflation and a positive GDP growth projection for FY25 by the RBI underscored the solidity of the country's economic foundation.

IPO Frenzy

2023 was a spectacular year for the primary markets. Out of 59 IPOs, 54 listed over the issue price. The diverse array of sectors represented in this IPO frenzy underscores the vibrancy of the Indian economy, showcasing both traditional and technology-driven industries.

Top Listing Gainers:

Stocks Listing                        Gains

Tata Technologies                 162.60%

Motisons Jewellers                88.27%

IREDA                                      87.50%

Gandhar Oil Refinery India    78.34%

DOMS Industries                    67.85%

Mool’s 2024 Outlook

Positive Drivers

Expansionary Policy: Worldwide, inflation has reached its zenith in early 2023, and the US FED signals potential relief with three anticipated rate cuts in CY24. The RBI is also expected to cut rates in H2CY24.

Bullish Trend in Emerging Markets: The US 10-year yield experiences a substantial 100 basis points drop from its peak, instigating a rally in Emerging Markets.

India's Economic Optimism: India's strong domestic environment, active investor engagement, and anticipated political stabilitypost-2024 elections position the country for significant policy momentum.

Negative Drivers

Rate cut expectations: The likelihood of a US interest rate cut iswidely expected and already reflected in market sentiments. The markets arelikely to top out once the rate cuts happen.

Chinese Economic Struggles Top of Form: China's economic growth will slow in the coming year to 4.6%, amid a slump in the real estate market and stagnant consumption.

In conclusion, we anticipate the markets to rise 10-12% in CY24. With large caps leading the front, sectors like BFSI, Infra, Auto, and IT look good for investment.